Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- IND offense: -0.153 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- IND on 3 more days rest than JAX
- QB edge to JAX: Matt Ryan (IND) -0.060 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.025 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
JAX
IND
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 03:51 TD JAX (3:51) 16-T.Lawrence up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – IND 0
- Q2 14:00 FG IND (14:00) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. JAX 7 – IND 3
- Q2 11:36 TD JAX (11:36) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 22-J.Hasty right tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 13 – IND 3
- Q2 02:11 TD IND (2:11) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 1-P.Campbell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – IND 9
- Q2 00:25 FG IND (:25) 7-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack. JAX 14 – IND 13
- Q3 10:58 TD JAX (10:58) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 20 – IND 13
- Q3 05:47 TD IND (5:47) (No Huddle) 35-D.Jackson left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 21 – IND 19
- Q4 12:52 TD IND (12:52) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 80-J.Woods for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 21 – IND 25
- Q4 02:48 TD JAX (2:48) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass short right to 13-C.Kirk for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – IND 26
- Q4 00:23 TD IND (:23) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass deep right to 14-A.Pierce for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 27 – IND 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 48Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 49% p(FG) 31%
(12:19) 6-M.Haack punts 33 yards to JAX 15, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q1 IND 4th & 1 at the 81Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EPp(convert) 71%
(7:27) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to JAX 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 44 for 8 yards (83-K.Granson).
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Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 97%
(14:00) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
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Q2 IND 4th & 16 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 41%
(8:49) 6-M.Haack punts 32 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.
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Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 88Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(6:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to IND 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 20-N.Cross MUFFS catch, recovered by IND-34-I.Rodgers at IND 28. 34-I.Rodgers pushed ob at IND 46 for 18 yards (50-S.Quarterman).
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Q2 JAX 4th & 14 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(1:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to IND 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee to IND 39 for 19 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 57-C.Johnson). IND-15-K.Coutee was injured during the play.
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Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 86%
(:25) 7-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.
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Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 72%
(1:14) (Shotgun) 72-W.Little reported in as eligible. 1-T.Etienne right end pushed ob at IND 34 for -2 yards (45-E.Speed).
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Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 69% p(FG) 46%
(5:48) 16-T.Lawrence right guard to IND 40 for 2 yards (99-D.Buckner; 94-T.Lewis).