Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 88

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to IND 39, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 20-N.Cross MUFFS catch, recovered by IND-34-I.Rodgers at IND 28. 34-I.Rodgers pushed ob at IND 46 for 18 yards (50-S.Quarterman).

The Three Options

GO -2.89 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.81 EP
62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 88, worth -5.11 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model