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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 10

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(14:00) 7-C.McLaughlin 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-6-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
  • 26% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.59 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 10, worth +0.72 EP
KICK +2.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.62 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model