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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 81

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 6-M.Haack punts 45 yards to JAX 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 44 for 8 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 81, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.97 EP