Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 81

Jacksonville Jaguars 14 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 9-L.Cooke punts 61 yards to IND 20, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 15-K.Coutee to IND 39 for 19 yards (46-R.Matiscik; 57-C.Johnson). IND-15-K.Coutee was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.32 EP
68% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 81, worth -4.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model