Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYG offense: -0.155 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
- Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- BAL defense: +0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- BAL offense: +0.016 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
BAL
NYG
Pulled fresh for 2022 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 09:33 TD BAL (9:33) (Shotgun) 17-K.Drake right tackle for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – NYG 0
- Q2 03:36 TD NYG (3:36) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 17-W.Robinson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – NYG 6
- Q2 01:48 FG BAL (1:48) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 10 – NYG 7
- Q3 09:44 FG BAL (9:44) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout. BAL 13 – NYG 7
- Q3 02:03 FG NYG (2:03) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. BAL 13 – NYG 10
- Q4 13:00 TD BAL (13:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 19 – NYG 10
- Q4 06:06 TD NYG (6:06) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 82-D.Bellinger for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – NYG 16
- Q4 01:46 TD NYG (1:46) 26-S.Barkley left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 20 – NYG 23
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 14 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 52%
(9:42) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.
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Q1 NYG 4th & 7 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(5:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to BAL 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
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Q1 BAL 4th & 16 at the 38Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 63%
(:31) 9-J.Tucker 56 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 46Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 42%
(13:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 35 yards to BAL 11, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 94%
(1:48) 9-J.Tucker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q2 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(1:18) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to BAL 10, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at BAL 22 for 12 yards (47-C.Brown). PENALTY on BAL-16-T.Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BAL 22.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 79Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73%
(:18) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to NYG 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 80-R.James ran ob at NYG 34 for 8 yards (59-A.Klein). PENALTY on BAL-59-A.Klein, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 34.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(9:44) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.
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Q3 NYG 4th & 16 at the 16Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%
(2:03) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.