4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 16 at the 16

New York Giants 7 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(2:03) 9-G.Gano 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.08 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 26, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model