Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 14 at the 42

Baltimore Ravens 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 11-J.Stout punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.09 EP
72% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 42, worth -2.56 EP

KICK -0.64 EP

52% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
48% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model