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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 66

New York Giants 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(5:42) 6-J.Gillan punts 50 yards to BAL 16, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 66, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 24, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model