Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 10 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(:18) 11-J.Stout punts 53 yards to NYG 26, Center-46-N.Moore. 80-R.James ran ob at NYG 34 for 8 yards (59-A.Klein). PENALTY on BAL-59-A.Klein, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 34.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP

73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.07 EP
27% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 79, worth -2.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model