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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Sunday 2022-10-09 · 16:25 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

PHI
59.9%
ARI
40.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: +0.060 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • ARI defense: +0.095 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Kyler Murray (ARI): -0.083 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
ARI 21
Projected margin: PHI by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

PHI

Jake Elliott K Out right Ankle
Patrick Johnson LB Out Concussion
Avonte Maddox CB Out Ankle
Jordan Mailata T Doubtful Shoulder
Kyron Johnson LB Questionable Concussion
Boston Scott RB Questionable Rib

ARI

Max Garcia G Out Toe
Rashard Lawrence DT Out Hand
Matt Prater K Out right Hip
Nick Vigil LB Out Hamstring
Rodney Hudson C Doubtful Knee
Trayvon Mullen CB Questionable Hamstring
D.J. Humphries T Questionable Hamstring
Rondale Moore WR Questionable Knee
Justin Pugh G Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 20
–
ARI 17

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:06 TD PHI (8:06) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – ARI 0
  • Q2 10:14 TD PHI (10:14) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 13 – ARI 0
  • Q2 05:33 TD ARI (5:33) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 2-M.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – ARI 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG ARI (:03) 15-M.Ammendola 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. PHI 14 – ARI 10
  • Q3 10:01 FG PHI (10:01) 13-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 17 – ARI 10
  • Q4 09:47 TD ARI (9:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-E.Benjamin left tackle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 17 – ARI 16
  • Q4 01:48 FG PHI (1:48) 13-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 20 – ARI 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 9 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:26) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to PHI 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 36 for 15 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 51-T.Vallejo).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (8:40) (No Huddle) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to ARI 1 for 2 yards (25-Z.Collins; 94-Z.Allen).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (6:13) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to ARI 12, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 83-G.Dortch.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (2:39) 14-A.Lee punts 39 yards to PHI 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (9:31) 14-A.Lee punts 55 yards to PHI 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 24 for 7 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 30%

    (3:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to ARI 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (1:55) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 24-D.Williams. 24-D.Williams right end to ARI 35 for 7 yards (21-A.Chachere, 32-R.Blankenship).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 19 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 88%

    (10:01) 13-C.Dicker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 18 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 37%

    (:32) 8-A.Siposs punts 39 yards to ARI 10, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-58-K.Johnson.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 5 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (1:48) 13-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 25 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 87%

    (:22) 15-M.Ammendola 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.