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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 25

Arizona Cardinals 17 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(:22) 15-M.Ammendola 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.40 EP
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +2.14 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model