4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 5

Philadelphia Eagles 17 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 13-C.Dicker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 5, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model