Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 72

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(12:26) 14-A.Lee punts 51 yards to PHI 21, Center-46-A.Brewer. 18-B.Covey to PHI 36 for 15 yards (52-V.Dimukeje; 51-T.Vallejo).

The Three Options

GO -1.71 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.46 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 72, worth -4.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model