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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 52

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(3:34) 8-A.Siposs punts 45 yards to ARI 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-27-Z.McPhearson.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.39 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP