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NYG Away

New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2022-09-11 · 16:25 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌧 Rain Spread 5.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYG
20.5%
TEN
79.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.285 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.099 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Daniel Jones (NYG): -0.029 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYG 16
–
TEN 27
Projected margin: TEN by 11 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYG

Azeez Ojulari LB Doubtful Calf
Kayvon Thibodeaux LB Doubtful Knee
Dane Belton S Questionable Collarbone

TEN

Chance Campbell LB Out Knee
Lonnie Johnson CB Out Groin
Elijah Molden CB Out Groin
Jamarco Jones T Out Triceps
Olasunkanmi Adeniyi LB Questionable Neck

Pulled fresh for 2022 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 21
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:52 TD TEN (9:52) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 12:39 FG TEN (12:39) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. NYG 0 – TEN 10
  • Q2 07:00 FG TEN (7:00) 14-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse. NYG 0 – TEN 13
  • Q3 11:20 TD NYG (11:20) 26-S.Barkley up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – TEN 13
  • Q3 08:58 TD NYG (8:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass deep left to 3-S.Shepard for 65 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 12 – TEN 13
  • Q3 03:00 TD TEN (3:00) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 40-D.Hilliard for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-D.Lawrence]. NYG 13 – TEN 19
  • Q4 01:09 TD NYG (1:09) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 85-C.Myarick for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 1 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (13:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to TEN 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips to NYG 45 for 46 yards (23-G.Brightwell; 95-Q.Roche).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:19) 6-J.Gillan punts 46 yards to TEN 13, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips to TEN 18 for 5 yards (44-N.McCloud).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 5 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (4:44) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 54 yards to NYG 23, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James pushed ob at NYG 40 for 17 yards (40-D.Hilliard).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 4 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (2:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-K.Philips.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 8 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 82%

    (12:39) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (7:00) 14-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-R.Stonehouse.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 3 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:09) 6-J.Gillan punts 44 yards to TEN 18, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-K.Philips.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 38%

    (1:05) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 38 yards to NYG 9, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 80-R.James. TEN-92-O.Adeniyi was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (12:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 10 for 3 yards (30-T.Avery; 40-D.Hilliard).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (9:40) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 64 yards to NYG 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 36 for 18 yards (53-D.Cole).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to TEN 3, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips to TEN 14 for 11 yards (20-J.Love).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (14:36) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 66 yards to NYG 13, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 15 for 2 yards (30-T.Avery; 23-T.Cannon).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (10:38) 6-J.Gillan punts 43 yards to TEN 12, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips MUFFS catch, touched at TEN 13, RECOVERED by NYG-27-J.Pinnock at TEN 11.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (5:38) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 58 yards to NYG 5, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 27 for 22 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 17 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 94%

    (2:00) 8-D.Jones scrambles left end pushed ob at TEN 15 for 2 yards (96-D.Autry).