4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:03) 6-J.Gillan punts 60 yards to TEN 9, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips to NYG 45 for 46 yards (23-G.Brightwell; 95-Q.Roche).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.13 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 69, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 27, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP