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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 13 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 4-R.Stonehouse punts 62 yards to NYG 7, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-R.James to NYG 10 for 3 yards (30-T.Avery; 40-D.Hilliard).

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 69, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 27, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP