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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 72

New York Giants 13 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(:53) 6-J.Gillan punts 69 yards to TEN 3, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-K.Philips to TEN 14 for 11 yards (20-J.Love).

The Three Options

GO -2.26 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.48 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 72, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 30, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model