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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 54

New York Giants 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:16) 6-J.Gillan punts 47 yards to TEN 7, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 18-K.Philips.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.56 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model