Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- SF offense: +0.085 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- SF defense: -0.116 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LA defense: -0.046 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- QB edge to SF: Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.118 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.165 EPA/dropback (SF starting Jimmy Garoppolo in place of Trey Lance)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 18
SF
LA
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:11 FG LA (6:11) 8-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 0 – LA 3
- Q2 10:31 TD LA (10:31) 70-J.Noteboom and 65-C.Shelton reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 9
- Q2 06:49 TD LA (6:49) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 0 – LA 16
- Q2 00:03 FG SF (:03) 9-R.Gould 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk. SF 3 – LA 17
- Q3 10:41 TD SF (10:41) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel right tackle for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – LA 17
- Q3 01:53 TD SF (1:53) (Shotgun) 19-D.Samuel pass deep right to 15-J.Jennings for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN [40-V.Miller]. SF 16 – LA 17
- Q4 02:34 TD LA (2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 10-C.Kupp for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 17 – LA 23
- Q4 00:31 TD SF (:31) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 15-J.Jennings for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 23 – LA 24
- Q5 02:48 FG SF (2:48) 9-R.Gould 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-44-K.Juszczyk. SF 27 – LA 24
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LA 4th & 16 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 23% p(FG) 87%
(6:11) 8-M.Gay 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q1 SF 4th & 8 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40%
(2:01) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 42 yards to LA 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 19-B.Powell to LA 39 for 9 yards (81-T.Sherfield).
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Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%
(10:31) 70-J.Noteboom and 65-C.Shelton reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(:45) 6-J.Hekker punts 51 yards to SF 15, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.
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Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(8:58) 6-J.Hekker punts 45 yards to SF 26, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-33-N.Scott.
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Q4 SF 4th & 7 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(15:00) 9-R.Gould punts 47 yards to LA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-13-R.Cracraft.
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Q4 LA 4th & 20 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24%
(12:59) 6-J.Hekker punts 59 yards to SF 9, Center-42-M.Orzech. 17-T.Benjamin ran ob at SF 23 for 14 yards (32-T.Howard).
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Q4 SF 4th & 18 at the 83 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(1:57) 9-R.Gould punts 43 yards to LA 40, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.
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Q4 LA 4th & 5 at the 55 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to SF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.