4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 55

Los Angeles Rams 24 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(1:34) 6-J.Hekker punts 43 yards to SF 12, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.91 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.52 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 55, worth -1.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model