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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 2

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:31) 70-J.Noteboom and 65-C.Shelton reported in as eligible. 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 89-T.Higbee for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.50 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model