Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 83

San Francisco 49ers 17 – Los Angeles Rams 24

(1:57) 9-R.Gould punts 43 yards to LA 40, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

The Three Options

GO -2.41 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.22 EP
71% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 83, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model