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Kansas City Chiefs

12-5 HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

7-10 HC Vic Fangio
Saturday 2022-01-08 · 16:30 ET Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US 🌧 Rain Spread -11.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

KC
60.2%
DEN
39.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • KC offense: +0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to KC: Drew Lock (DEN) -0.079 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.114 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: -0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
  • DEN defense: -0.041 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • KC defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 23 16–30
–
DEN 19 12–26
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 18

KC

Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB Out Shoulder
Lucas Niang T Out Knee

DEN

Ronald Darby CB Out Shoulder
Patrick Surtain CB Out Calf
Nate Hairston CB Questionable Illness
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 28
–
DEN 24

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:13 TD KC (6:13) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – DEN 0
  • Q1 00:32 TD DEN (:32) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – DEN 6
  • Q2 07:57 TD DEN (7:57) (Shotgun) 3-D.Lock scrambles up the middle for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 7 – DEN 13
  • Q2 02:22 FG KC (2:22) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 10 – DEN 14
  • Q3 10:52 TD KC (10:52) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 1-J.McKinnon for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN-29-B.Callahan was injured during the play. KC 16 – DEN 14
  • Q3 09:11 TD DEN (9:11) 25-M.Gordon left guard for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 17 – DEN 20
  • Q4 14:49 FG KC (14:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. KC 20 – DEN 21
  • Q4 07:57 TD KC (7:57) 25-M.Gordon right guard to KC 13 for -4 yards (24-M.Ingram). FUMBLES (24-M.Ingram), touched at KC 13, RECOVERED by KC-54-N.Bolton at KC 14. 54-N.Bolton for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 26 – DEN 21
  • Q4 04:41 FG DEN (4:41) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. KC 28 – DEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (14:10) 6-S.Martin punts 65 yards to KC 4, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 17-M.Hardman to KC 9 for 5 yards (50-J.Griffith; 46-J.Bobenmoyer).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 16 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 94%

    (2:22) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (:31) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 15, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 6 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 48%

    (5:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (4:26) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to KC 43, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 1 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 35%

    (2:14) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 10-T.Hill to DEN 46 for 2 yards (23-K.Fuller).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 75%

    (14:49) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 9 at the 13 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 96%

    (4:41) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →