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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 13

Denver Broncos 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(4:41) 8-B.McManus 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 23, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model