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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 6 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 17 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(5:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 43, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.56 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.80 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP