Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 79

Denver Broncos 21 – Kansas City Chiefs 17

(4:26) 6-S.Martin punts 36 yards to KC 43, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.47 EP
63% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model