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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 16 at the 16

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 24% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.69 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 16, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model