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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
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PHI Home

Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
Saturday 2022-01-08 · 20:15 Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia US 🥶 Cold Spread -6.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

DAL
33.1%
PHI
66.9%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to PHI: Gardner Minshew (PHI) +0.526 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.122 EPA/dropback (PHI starting Gardner Minshew in place of Jalen Hurts)
  • PHI offense: +0.078 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DAL defense: -0.187 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • Gardner Minshew (PHI) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
PHI 29
Projected margin: PHI by 5 Projected total: 53

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

DAL

Trevon Diggs CB Questionable Illness
Donovan Wilson S Questionable Illness
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Hamstring
Tony Pollard RB Questionable Foot

PHI

Miles Sanders RB Out Hand
Landon Dickerson G Questionable Thumb
Lane Johnson T Questionable Not injury related - resting player

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 51
–
PHI 26

Prediction missed by 30 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:44 TD PHI (9:44) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 80-T.Jackson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 0 – PHI 6
  • Q1 05:14 TD DAL (5:14) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – PHI 7
  • Q1 01:41 FG DAL (1:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 10 – PHI 7
  • Q2 12:28 FG PHI (12:28) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. DAL 10 – PHI 10
  • Q2 08:15 TD DAL (8:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 1-C.Wilson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 16 – PHI 10
  • Q2 03:45 TD PHI (3:45) 14-K.Gainwell right end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 17 – PHI 16
  • Q2 01:48 TD DAL (1:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 23 – PHI 17
  • Q2 00:09 TD DAL (:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short middle to 86-D.Schultz for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 29 – PHI 17
  • Q3 06:02 FG PHI (6:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. DAL 30 – PHI 20
  • Q4 14:39 TD DAL (14:39) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 32-C.Clement for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 36 – PHI 20
  • Q4 10:21 TD DAL (10:21) 43-I.Smith up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 43 – PHI 20
  • Q4 08:44 TD DAL (8:44) (Shotgun) 37-J.Hardy right guard for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 50 – PHI 20
  • Q4 02:00 TD PHI (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short right to 16-Q.Watkins for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN [72-T.Hill]. DAL 51 – PHI 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 68%

    (6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper ran ob at PHI 20 for 14 yards (34-K.Vincent).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:45) 8-A.Siposs punts 42 yards to DAL 33, Center-45-R.Lovato. 88-C.Lamb pushed ob at DAL 44 for 11 yards (81-R.Rodgers).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 11 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 77%

    (1:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 16 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (12:28) 4-J.Elliott 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:48) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to PHI 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 84-G.Ward to PHI 36 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on PHI-34-K.Vincent, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 35.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 3 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 39%

    (8:37) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short middle to 16-Q.Watkins pushed ob at DAL 34 for 11 yards (18-D.Kazee).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 10 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (6:02) 4-J.Elliott 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 2 at the 11
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 32-C.Clement up the middle to PHI 8 for 3 yards (53-C.Elliss; 95-M.Tuipulotu). PHI-73-M.Wilson was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (12:54) 8-A.Siposs punts 24 yards to DAL 48, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-45-R.Lovato. PHI-80-T.Jackson was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (6:59) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to PHI 37 for 3 yards (93-T.Basham).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 34%

    (3:29) (Shotgun) 10-G.Minshew pass short left to 14-K.Gainwell to DAL 38 for 9 yards (55-L.Vander Esch).