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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(6:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper ran ob at PHI 20 for 14 yards (34-K.Vincent).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model