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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 11 at the 30

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 2-G.Zuerlein 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.56 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model