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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 66

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Dallas Cowboys 51

What Actually Happened

(6:59) (Shotgun) 14-K.Gainwell up the middle to PHI 37 for 3 yards (93-T.Basham).

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model