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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 79

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Philadelphia Eagles 17

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 5-B.Anger punts 44 yards to PHI 35, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 84-G.Ward to PHI 36 for 1 yard (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on PHI-34-K.Vincent, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 35.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.76 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 79, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP