Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- GB offense: +0.172 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- QB edge to GB: Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.165 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.207 EPA/dropback (BAL starting Tyler Huntley in place of Lamar Jackson)
- BAL offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 15
GB
BAL
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 02:39 TD BAL (2:39) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short right to 89-M.Andrews for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – BAL 6
- Q2 12:53 TD GB (12:53) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – BAL 7
- Q2 07:16 TD BAL (7:16) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short left to 89-M.Andrews for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 7 – BAL 13
- Q2 01:13 TD GB (1:13) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – BAL 14
- Q3 07:46 TD GB (7:46) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 33-A.Jones for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – BAL 14
- Q3 03:24 FG BAL (3:24) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. GB 21 – BAL 17
- Q4 12:58 TD GB (12:58) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 83-M.Valdes-Scantling for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – BAL 17
- Q4 09:30 FG GB (9:30) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 31 – BAL 17
- Q4 04:54 TD BAL (4:54) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 31 – BAL 23
- Q4 00:47 TD BAL (:47) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley scrambles up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 31 – BAL 30
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%
(11:15) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley right tackle to GB 17 for 3 yards (59-D.Campbell; 93-T.Slaton).
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Q1 BAL 4th & 3 at the 3Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%
(7:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at GB 7 for -4 yards (59-D.Campbell).
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Q1 GB 4th & 4 at the 87Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EPp(convert) 56%
(6:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom. PENALTY on GB-24-I.Yiadom, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 40.
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Q2 BAL 4th & 15 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(:45) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to GB 26, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 39-C.Sullivan.
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Q2 GB 4th & 19 at the 59Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Touchback.
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Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 90%
(3:24) 9-J.Tucker 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 71Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.35 EPp(convert) 42%
(12:01) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass incomplete short right to 28-L.Murray.
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Q4 GB 4th & 11 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(9:30) 2-M.Crosby 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.
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Q4 BAL 4th & 6 at the 14Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 95%
(5:21) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to GB 3 for 11 yards (31-A.Amos, 20-K.King).
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Q4 GB 4th & 19 at the 91 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31%
(2:30) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 40 yards to GB 49, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.