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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 14

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Green Bay Packers 31

What Actually Happened

(5:21) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley pass short middle to 89-M.Andrews to GB 3 for 11 yards (31-A.Amos, 20-K.King).

The Three Options

GO +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.23 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP