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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 87

Green Bay Packers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(6:15) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to BAL 40, Center-46-S.Wirtel, downed by GB-24-I.Yiadom. PENALTY on GB-24-I.Yiadom, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at BAL 40.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.22 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 87, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 45, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP