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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 3

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) (Shotgun) 2-T.Huntley sacked at GB 7 for -4 yards (59-D.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +3.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.43 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.67 EP
KICK +2.44 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model