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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(:14) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.57 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 59, worth -1.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 18, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model