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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
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ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Monday 2021-12-13 · 20:15 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

LA
39.0%
ARI
61.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.068 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.269 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.212 EPA/dropback (ARI starting Kyler Murray in place of Taysom Kyler Murray)

Predicted Final Score

LA 22
–
ARI 27
Projected margin: ARI by 5 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

LA

Brian Allen C Doubtful Knee
Donte Deayon CB Questionable Illness
Terrell Lewis LB Questionable Back

ARI

Zach Kerr DT Out Ribs
Justin Pugh G Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 30
–
ARI 23

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 FG ARI (11:03) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 0 – ARI 3
  • Q2 12:56 TD LA (12:56) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short left to 3-O.Beckham for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – ARI 3
  • Q2 07:28 FG LA (7:28) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – ARI 3
  • Q2 03:22 TD ARI (3:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 10 – ARI 9
  • Q2 00:38 FG LA (:38) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 13 – ARI 10
  • Q2 00:01 FG ARI (:01) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 13 – ARI 13
  • Q3 13:44 TD LA (13:44) 9-M.Stafford pass deep middle to 12-V.Jefferson for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 19 – ARI 13
  • Q3 09:50 TD LA (9:50) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 26 – ARI 13
  • Q4 13:45 TD ARI (13:45) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 6-J.Conner. 6-J.Conner left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 27 – ARI 19
  • Q4 07:24 FG LA (7:24) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 30 – ARI 20
  • Q4 00:41 FG ARI (:41) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. LA 30 – ARI 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 10 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 68%

    (11:03) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (10:03) 6-J.Hekker punts 38 yards to ARI 33, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:23) 14-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 29, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-B.Powell.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 37
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 63%

    (7:28) 8-M.Gay 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (3:22) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 94%

    (:38) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 95%

    (4:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass incomplete short left to 10-D.Hopkins.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 16 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:52) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 27, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 4-R.Moore.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (7:24) 8-M.Gay 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 63%

    (5:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to LA 37 for no gain (40-V.Miller).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 12 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%

    (2:56) 6-J.Hekker punts 40 yards to ARI 13, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 9 at the 86 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to LA 39 for 47 yards (4-J.Fuller).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 13 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 76%

    (:41) 5-M.Prater 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.