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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 3 at the 17

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(:38) 8-M.Gay 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.03 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.60 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model