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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 86

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 13-C.Kirk to LA 39 for 47 yards (4-J.Fuller).

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.25 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 86, worth -2.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 44, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.45 EP