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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 37

Arizona Cardinals 20 – Los Angeles Rams 30

What Actually Happened

(5:24) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle to LA 37 for no gain (40-V.Miller).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.10 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 37, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 46, worth -2.16 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model