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Seattle Seahawks

HC Pete Carroll
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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
Monday 2021-11-29 · 20:15 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

SEA
41.5%
WAS
58.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS defense: +0.111 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Russell Wilson (SEA): -0.052 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SEA offense: -0.033 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • SEA defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SEA 21
–
WAS 24
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SEA

Tre Brown CB Out Knee
Travis Homer RB Out Calf
Jamarco Jones T Out Back
Damien Lewis G Out Elbow
Rashaad Penny RB Out Hamstring

WAS

Samuel Cosmi T Out Hip
Tyler Larsen C Out Knee
Ricky Seals-Jones TE Doubtful Hip
Adam Humphries WR Questionable Hip
Curtis Samuel WR Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SEA 15
–
WAS 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:02 FG WAS (3:02) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. SEA 0 – WAS 3
  • Q1 00:25 TD SEA (:25) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 81-G.Everett for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – WAS 3
  • Q2 01:03 TD WAS (1:03) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short right to 41-J.McKissic for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 7 – WAS 9
  • Q3 08:35 TD WAS (8:35) (Shotgun) 41-J.McKissic right tackle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 9 – WAS 15
  • Q4 00:22 TD SEA (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 18-F.Swain for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 15 – WAS 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (14:06) 5-T.Way punts 48 yards to SEA 24, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 26-R.Neal.

  • Q1 SEA 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:32) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to WAS 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:02) 3-J.Slye 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (13:30) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to SEA 14, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (10:51) 4-M.Dickson punts 55 yards to WAS 9, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SEA 4th & 1 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 9, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 5 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:36) 4-M.Dickson punts 53 yards to WAS 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-D.Carter MUFFS catch, and recovers at WAS 27.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 3 at the 63
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:03) 4-M.Dickson punts 38 yards to WAS 25, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-31-D.Dallas.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (5:06) 5-T.Way punts 53 yards to SEA 13, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q3 SEA 4th & 4 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (4:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:15) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to SEA 17, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-30-T.Apke.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 13 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to WAS 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-D.Carter to WAS 44 for 8 yards (57-C.Barton).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:47) 5-T.Way punts 33 yards to SEA 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

  • Q4 SEA 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (11:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to WAS 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 4 at the 22 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 88%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 1-D.Carter to SEA 7 for 15 yards (6-Q.Diggs).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (2:25) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short middle to 82-L.Thomas for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass incomplete short middle to 82-L.Thomas (33-J.Adams).