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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 61

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 4-M.Dickson punts 48 yards to WAS 13, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-57-C.Barton.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.25 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 20, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model