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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 13 at the 86

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to WAS 36, Center-69-T.Ott. 1-D.Carter to WAS 44 for 8 yards (57-C.Barton).

The Three Options

GO -3.09 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 86, worth -5.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 44, worth -2.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model