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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 63

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 9

What Actually Happened

(:23) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 9, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by SEA-26-R.Neal.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +0.92 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 63, worth -1.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 21, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP