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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 4 at the 81

Seattle Seahawks 9 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(4:18) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to WAS 27, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 1-D.Carter.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 81, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -2.13 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 38, worth -2.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model