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LAC Away

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
@
DEN Home

Denver Broncos

HC Vic Fangio
Sunday 2021-11-28 · 16:05 Empower Field at Mile High, Denver US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

LAC
44.8%
DEN
55.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.087 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • QB edge to DEN: Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.177 vs Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.149 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23
–
DEN 24
Projected margin: DEN by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

LAC

Alohi Gilman S Out Quadricep
Asante Samuel CB Out Concussion
Matt Feiler G Questionable Ankle
Trey Marshall S Questionable Ankle

DEN

Kareem Jackson S Doubtful Neck
Bobby Massie T Doubtful Ankle
Tyrie Cleveland WR Questionable Hamstring
Shelby Harris DE Questionable Ankle
Mike Boone RB Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 13
–
DEN 28

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 04:39 TD DEN (4:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – DEN 6
  • Q2 12:50 TD DEN (12:50) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – DEN 13
  • Q2 00:35 TD LAC (:35) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – DEN 14
  • Q4 09:00 TD DEN (9:00) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 82-E.Saubert for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – DEN 20
  • Q4 07:40 TD DEN (7:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 30-A.Ekeler INTERCEPTED by 2-P.Surtain at DEN 30. 2-P.Surtain for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 7 – DEN 27
  • Q4 04:44 TD LAC (4:44) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep left to 87-J.Cook for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-M.Agim]. LAC 13 – DEN 28

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 18 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 51%

    (11:05) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to LAC 1, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-27-N.Hairston.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP
    p(convert) 75%

    (9:06) 1-T.Long punts 48 yards to DEN 42, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer to 50 for 8 yards (22-J.Jackson).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 56%

    (3:39) 1-T.Long punts 43 yards to DEN 25, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 70%

    (7:07) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short middle to 13-K.Allen (21-R.Darby).

  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (5:00) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 15 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:46) 1-T.Long punts 45 yards to DEN 33, Center-54-M.Overton. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 38 for 5 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 13 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 73%

    (7:58) 6-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q3 DEN 4th & 18 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:45) 6-S.Martin punts 40 yards to LAC 25, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 34
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 73%

    (1:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right to 15-J.Guyton to DEN 19 for 15 yards (31-J.Simmons).