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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 57

Denver Broncos 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 6-S.Martin punts 43 yards to LAC 14, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.36 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP